A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
