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PHEVs produce nearly 5x more global warming emissions than official data show, as per a recent report.

Widening Discrepancy Between Official and Actual Emissions

Data shows that PHEVs emit just 19% lower CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel vehicles, according to analysis conducted by a non-profit organization. That differs sharply with laboratory estimates, which assumed a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Analysts examined information from in-vehicle fuel consumption monitors of 800,000 cars sold in Europe between 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times greater than official estimates, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual CO2 output are rising, while official emissions are decreasing,” stated a lead researcher participating in the report. “That gap is growing and poses a significant problem. Consequently, PHEVs emit almost as heavily as gasoline vehicles.”

Primary Factors Behind the Discrepancy

Analysts attributed most of the gap to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the ratio of kilometers travelled in electric mode relative to overall distance. They found that just 27% of travel was done in EV mode, while official estimates assumed 84%.

Even, when running in electric mode, pollution amounts were significantly higher than lab estimates. This occurred because electric motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to operate independently, leading to engines using gasoline for almost one-third of the travel covered in EV mode.

Policy and Financial Consequences

According to estimates, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed four major carmaker groups to avoid more than €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying adherence with EU average fleet CO₂ targets.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs would pay approximately €500 extra annually in running expenses than would be estimated under laboratory tests.

“The bold statements that automakers like to make about their plug-in hybrid vehicles are clearly far from the mark,” stated a automotive analyst. “Consumers are being duped into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and cutting costs. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly better than regular petrol and diesel vehicles in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ emissions, and running costs.”

Political Debate and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid cars have recently been brought back into political discussions as automakers have lobbied the EU to weaken CO₂ targets. A proposed prohibition on sales of new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the automotive industry and resistance from member states with large car industries.

Some high-level officials have suggested plug-in hybrids as a possible “compromise” solution to introduce in the regulation.

An external energy economics expert, who was unaffiliated with the research, called the report a “very useful addition” after a long period in which segments of the car industry claimed there was too little information to accurately assess real-world CO2 output.

“The results demonstrate, beyond any doubt, that the gap between official and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is much, much greater than for gasoline or conventional cars,” they said. “All regulatory adjustments regarding PHEVs should be made with extreme caution and in the light of this evidence.”